中国剧变——Great Leap Backward

Great Leap Backward
中国剧变
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
Published: April 27, 2011
2011年4月27日
尼古拉斯·克里斯托夫
SHANGHAI
上海
 

Since China is in the middle of its harshest crackdown on independent thought in two decades, I thought that on this visit I might write about a woman named Cheng Jianping who is imprisoned for tweeting.

在中国严厉地镇压独立思想的过去20年中,我想在这次对中国的访问中,我将要谈谈因为在推特上发表言论而被投入监狱的程建萍女士。

Ms. Cheng was arrested on what was supposed to have been her wedding day last fall for sending a single sarcastic Twitter message that included the words “charge, angry youth.” The government, lacking a sense of humor, sentenced her to a year in labor camp.

程女士因为在推特上发送了一条讽刺性的推文“冲啊,粪青们!”而在她婚礼的当天被捕。缺乏幽默感的中国政府判处她一年劳教。

So I tried to interview her fiancé, Hua Chunhui, but it turns out that Mr. Hua was recently arrested and imprisoned as well. That’s the way it goes in China these days. The government’s crackdown is rippling through the country, undercutting China’s prodigious growth and representing the harshest clampdown since the crushing of the Tiananmen democracy movement in 1989.

因此我试图采访她的未婚夫华春辉,但传来的消息是,华春辉也于最近被捕。这就是目前中国的现状。政府的镇压行动波及了全国,冲淡了中国的增长,代表着自1989年在天安门镇压民主运动一下最残酷的镇压行动。

The reason? Surprising as it may seem, the government is worried that China could become the next Egypt or Tunisia, unless security forces act early and ruthlessly.

究其原因?就像看上去那样的荒谬:中国政府担心中国成为下一个埃及或者突尼斯,因此只有安全安全部队残忍的先下手为强才能消除政府的这种恐惧。

“Of course, they’re scared that the same thing might happen here,” one Chinese friend with family and professional ties to top leaders told me. A family member of another Chinese leader put it this way: “They’re just terrified. That’s why they’re cracking down.”

“当然,他们非常害怕同样的情况发生在中国。”一个家庭与职业都与中国最高层领导人有联系的朋友告诉我。另一个中国领导人的家人则这么说:“他们怕了。这就是他们镇压的原因。”

Yet another official says that the Politburo internalized a basic lesson from the Tiananmen movement: It’s crucial to suppress protests early, before they gain traction. He says that from China’s point of view, the mistake that autocrats in Egypt and Tunisia made was not cracking down earlier and harder.

一名官员说中国的政治局在天安门事件中学到了关键一课:在示威活动的初期、形成影响力之前就镇压非常关键。他说从中国的观点来看,突尼斯和埃及的独裁者就失误在没有尽早地、更残酷地镇压示威者。

Paranoia also plays a role. Some Chinese leaders believe that America is nurturing a movement to subvert the government. Chen Jiping, a senior official, expressed this fear when he warned recently against “hostile Western forces attempting to Westernize and split us.” China, for a time, even blocked access to the blog of the outgoing American ambassador, Jon Huntsman Jr.

中国的妄想症也是原因之一。一些中国领导人相信,美国正在支持一场旨在推翻中国政府的运动。一名中国高级官员陈冀平最近的警告表达了这种恐惧:“西方敌对势力正在试图西方化中国、分裂中国”。中国政府一度封锁了即将离任的美国驻华大使洪博培的博客。

In truth, the differences with Egypt and Tunisia are profound. China’s leaders may be just as autocratic as those in the Middle East, and just as corrupt, but they’re far more competent. They’ve overseen astonishing improvements in the standard of living, in education, in health, in infrastructure. But I don’t want to get ahead of myself: That’s the topic of my next column.

事实上,中国与埃及和突击斯的差异是巨大的。中国的领导人像中东的独裁者们一样的独裁、一样的腐败,但他们更有能力。他们在生活水平、教育、医疗和基础设施建设方面建立了令人惊讶的成就。但这个问题我暂不深谈,我将在下一篇专栏文章中特别谈这个事情。

Another reason for the crackdown seems to be jitters over the transfer of power next year. President Hu Jintao, who seems, to me, to be the least visionary Communist Party leader since Hua Guofeng in the late-1970s, is expected to step down and be replaced by Xi Jinping, the current vice president. Officials say that the plan is for Li Keqiang to be prime minister and Wang Qishan (perhaps the ablest of the three) to be deputy prime minister.

这次镇压浪潮的另一个原因,看起来是中共政府对将于明年进行的最高领导权转移的焦虑。胡锦涛主席,在我看来是自1970年代末以来中共领导人中最缺乏远见的一个。他将于明年任满,由现任副主席习近平接任。中国官员说计划是将由李克强出任总理,由王岐山(可能是这三人中最有能力的一个)出任副总理。

But there is still jockeying, partly because President Hu is weak. Chinese officials are remarkably open about criticizing Mr. Hu, and the critics are said to include the military brass and former President Jiang Zemin. The complaints have little to do with the crackdown on dissent (“That’s just a very small issue to them,” one Chinese official explained to me), and more to do with the way Mr. Hu has frozen or backtracked on economic and political reforms, allowed inflation to stir and harmed relations with the U.S.

但权力斗争仍在进行,部分原因是胡锦涛的软弱。中国官员显著地公开批评胡锦涛,这种批评也包括了对前主席江泽民和一些军队高层。这些批评中,针对近期对异议人士的镇压并不很多(”那些(异议人士)对他们来说是只小问题。“一名中国官员对我说。),更多的是指责胡锦涛治下中国经济发展和政治改革的停滞或者倒退、任由通货膨胀增长和中美关系的恶化。

Many ordinary Chinese seem to feel the same way. Most Chinese I have talked to don’t care much about dissidents; their main concerns are inflation, corruption and better jobs. Moreover, they feel freer in their daily lives — so long as they don’t challenge the government, it mostly will leave them alone.

很多普通的中国人也感受到了这些变化。我接触到的大多数中国人对异议人士并不十分关心;他们更关心的是通胀、腐败问题和更好的工作。此外,他们还在日常生活中感到自由——只要他们不去非难政府,政府大多数时候也就不来找他们的麻烦。

Still, the crackdown represents a great leap backward, and it is particularly nasty in two respects.

自然,这次镇压浪潮代表着严重的、急剧的退步,而且在镇压中有两个无耻的方面尤其值得注意。

First, the government is arresting not only dissidents and Christians but also their family members and even their lawyers. Second, after a long period in which police would torture working-class prisoners but usually not intellectuals, the authorities are again brutalizing white-collar dissidents.

首先,政府这次不仅仅是抓捕异议人士和基督徒,还抓捕了他们的家人甚至他们的律师。其次,在过去长期以来中共政府的酷刑一般只用在劳工阶级的囚犯身上,但这次他们开始对属于白领阶层的异议人士使用残忍的酷刑。

One lawyer, Gao Zhisheng, was arrested and, by his account, subjected to beatings and electric shocks because he had represented Christians and dissidents. After a brief stint of freedom nearly a year ago, he apparently was arrested again and vanished. In China, “disappear” has become a transitive verb.

一名叫高智晟的律师曾经说,因为他代理基督徒和异议人士的案件,在他被捕以后,收到了当局的殴打和电击。在大约一年前高短暂的被释放了一小段时间以后,他再次被捕并失踪。在中共国,”被失踪“已经成为一个有特定意义的字眼。

The crackdown has extended to the Internet. My teenage daughter, with me on this trip, complains that in China “everything is blocked.” By that, she means that Facebook and YouTube are walled off, access to Gmail and Google searches comes and goes, and even her homework on Google Documents is inaccessible.

镇压蔓延到了互连网上。我的小女儿此次与我同往中国,抱怨到”你妈逼的在中国还有没有封锁的网站有木有!!!有木有!!!!共产党你伤不起啊伤不起啊啊啊啊啊啊啊啊啊!!!!!!!!“。她亲自尝到了非死不可和优土鳖被彻底封死、google搜索和gmail时断时续的痛苦滋味,甚至她在google documents上的家庭作业都无法完成。

Here we have a country that is coming of age, with an economic rise that is pretty much unprecedented in the history of the world — and it tarnishes those achievements with a harsh crackdown. For those of us who love China and believe in its future, this retreat is painful to watch.

我们看到一个有着悠久历史的国家,在世界历史上创造了空前的经济奇迹——而这个国家的光辉正在被政府对公民的野蛮镇压而玷污!对我们这些热爱中国,并对中国的未来充满信心的人,看到这种退步,令我们痛苦万分。

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