争议水域——为何中国海军让亚洲不安

Troubled Waters: Why China’s Navy Makes Asia Nervous
By Austin Ramzy / Dalian Wednesday, Aug. 10, 2011

争议水域——为何中国海军让亚洲不安

The last time the aircraft carrier once known as the Varyag generated this much concern, it was for fear it might sink. The ship was one of the Soviet Union’s last naval commissions, but construction at the Black Sea shipyard of Mykolaiv was abandoned in 1992 after the U.S.S.R.’s breakup. The Varyag languished as an unfinished hulk until 1998, when a Chinese company, based in Macau and with ties to the Chinese navy, bought it from Ukraine, ostensibly to take the ship to the gambling enclave as a floating casino. Turkish officials worried that the 300-m vessel — a rusting shell without weaponry, engines or navigation equipment — would sink while crossing the Bosphorus Strait, causing an environmental headache and a hazard to navigation. So they delayed its passage for three years, only agreeing in 2001 to halt traffic on the Bosphorus to allow the symbol of Soviet decline to be tugged past the shoreside forts and luxury homes of Istanbul on its five-month journey to the Pacific.

上一次这艘叫作“瓦良格号”的航母引起如此大的恐慌,是担心它会沉没。这艘航母是前苏联最后的后备航母舰队中的一艘,但是在黑海的米科拉夫造船厂建造。苏联解体后的1992年,这艘航母被遗弃。这艘未完成的船体一直受苦受难的熬到了1998年,一家在澳门的依附于中国海军的中国公司从乌克兰买下它,谎称把它用于在澳门建造一个海上赌场。土耳其官方一度担心这艘300米长的、没有引擎、没有武器、没有导航设备的大船会在穿越博斯普鲁斯海峡的时候沉没,从而造成环境问题和航海风险,因此他们把这艘大船通过博斯普鲁斯海峡的时间推迟了三年,直到2001年,土耳其政府暂停了博斯普鲁斯海峡的通航,才允许这艘苏联崩溃的象征的大船沿着伊斯坦布尔沿岸的要塞和豪华住宅穿过海峡,继续它的5个月的太平洋之旅。

Macau’s harbor was never deep enough for the Varyag. The orphaned warship of a former superpower, with its distinct ski-jump-like bow for launching planes, wound up instead in the northeastern Chinese port city of Dalian. There, it has slowly been transformed into the first aircraft carrier of a future superpower. Now the world has a new set of concerns about the former Varyag. On Aug. 10 the newly refurbished carrier set sail from Dalian for its first sea trial. Its casino cover story long discarded, the ship will enter a wager with decidedly higher stakes: the projection of China’s military power on the high seas.
(See China’s largest military parade in its history.)

澳门港的水深完全无法停泊瓦良格号。这艘有着飞跃滑雪跳板外形的飞行甲板的前超级大国的孤儿战舰,被送往中国东北的港口城市大连。在大连,瓦良格号被慢慢的改装成未来超级大国的首艘航母。现在全世界对“前瓦良格号”开始有了新的担忧。8月10号,这艘新整修的航母从大连港下水,开始它的首次出海。用赌场来伪装的故事早已被人长期无视,这艘战舰以显而易见的高赌注开始了一场赌博:向深海投射中国的军力。

The Varyag’s launch comes at a fraught time. China’s armed forces are modernizing — military spending has grown by an annual average of 15% since 2000 — and after a decadelong charm offensive in East and Southeast Asia, Beijing has begun taking a more aggressive stand on territorial disputes. Several factors are driving this tougher approach, including the possibility that disputed waters may have valuable energy reserves, a desire to challenge the regional influence of the U.S., the ever present influence of nationalism and a fear of looking weak before next year’s leadership transition. “The Chinese attitude appears to have become substantially more assertive in character,” says Clive Schofield, director of research at the University of Wollongong’s Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security. “You see this across the board.”

瓦良格号在一个忧虑的时代下水。中国的军队正在现代化——从2000年开始,中国的军费以每年平均15%的速度增长,而在对东亚和东南亚长达10年的魅力战术以后,北京开始在处理领土争端的时候采取更具攻击性的立场。导致中国出现这种行动的因素包括争议水域可能有价值极高的能源储藏、试图挑战美国的地区影响力、国家主义使然和担心在明年的中央领导权移交之前显得不够强硬。“中国人的心态现在看来实际上过于自负了,”Wollongong大学澳大利亚海洋资源与安全国家中心的研究总监 Clive Schofield说:“这已经越界了。”

China’s neighbors, particularly Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines, have responded with tough talk and posturing of their own. Last year China and Japan sparred over islands in the East China Sea that Japan administers and both nations claim, known as the Diaoyu to the Chinese and the Senkaku to the Japanese. When Japan detained a Chinese trawler captain near the islands, China cried foul. Two weeks later Japan released the fisherman, who returned to a hero’s welcome in China. This summer, Chinese warships passed through international waters near Okinawa, which has unsettled Tokyo. Japan’s latest white paper on national defense said Chinese military modernization, increased activities in Asian waters and lack of transparency “are becoming a cause for concern in the region and within the international community.”

中国的邻国,尤其是日本、越南和菲律宾,已经以强硬的对话和摆出他们的姿态来应对。去年中日两国就因为一个位于中国东部海域日本管理的有争议小岛而爆发争端。该岛中国称钓鱼岛,日本称为Senkaku岛。当日本逮捕了一名中国拖网渔船的船长以后,中国开始了下流的谩骂。两周后日本释放这名渔民,他回到中国后收到了英雄般的欢迎。今天夏天,中国军舰经过冲绳岛附近国际海域的行为,已经造成日本政府震动。日本最新的防务白皮书称中国军队的现代化、在亚洲海域活动的增加和不透明等“已经称为地区和国际社会担忧的根源。”

The more contentious cockpit is the South China Sea. Its 3 million sq km are dotted by tiny islands, and many of its waters are thought to hold rich oil and natural-gas deposits. Tensions have been rising between China, which claims almost all of the South China Sea, and some of the other Asian states that assert sovereignty over parts of it. The Philippines, which says that Chinese ships have harassed its survey ships and fishing boats a half-dozen times since the spring, announced it would begin to refer to the area as the West Philippine Sea and sent its navy’s flagship, the World War II — era frigate Rajah Humabon, to patrol it. Vietnam accuses Chinese vessels of deliberately cutting, twice this summer, the cables of survey ships belonging to PetroVietnam. Hanoi says it is considering a possible reinstatement of the military draft and carried out live-fire drills in June. China responded with three days of naval exercises of its own.
(See “China-Japan Tensions Grow After Shipping Collision.”)

争端更多的地方是南中国海。这三百万平方公里的海域有很多小岛分部,而在水面之下蕴藏着丰富的石油和天然气资源。宣布拥有几乎整个南中国海主权的中国和其他宣布拥有南中国海一部分主权的亚洲国家之间,关系变得更加紧张。菲律宾宣布,自今年春以来,中国船只在这片海域骚扰该国的调查船和渔船已经有6次,因此将开始派出菲律宾海军的旗舰——二战时代的护卫舰Rajah Humabon号,在这片菲律宾称之为“西菲律宾海”的水域巡逻。越南则指责中国船只在今年夏天两次故意剪断越南石油公司调查船的线缆。河内宣布,可能会恢复武装征兵,并在6月份开始进行实弹演习。中国则以三天的海军演习作为回应。

Surface Tension
The disputes over Asia’s waters have drawn in the U.S. Last year, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that the U.S. had a “national interest” in freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and offered Washington’s assistance as a mediator. China responded angrily that the U.S. was seeking to “internationalize” an issue that should be resolved among neighbors. Some observers figured that Beijing would take a less antagonistic approach in 2011, having seen how regional disputes invited greater U.S. involvement. “That hasn’t happened,” Ian Storey, a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore said in June. “In fact, tensions have risen in the past two or three months, probably to a higher level than they’ve been at since the end of the Cold War.”

表面的紧张

亚洲海域的争端已经使美国从去年开始就牵扯进来。美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿宣布在南中国海自由的航行是美国的国家利益,华盛顿愿意在南中国海争端中扮演调停者的角色。中国则愤怒的回应说美国想“国际化”这个本该由邻国之间自己解决的问题。一些观察家指出,北京应该在2011年更少的采取敌对行动,否则地区争端将会引起美国更多的干涉。“目前还没有发生”新加坡东南亚研究所的学者Ian Storey说“事实上,过去两三个月以来的地区紧张已经大大增加,甚至已经超过冷战结束以后的任何时候。”

On July 20, China and ASEAN announced nonbinding guidelines on how a settlement in the South China Sea might be pursued, but the differences have hardly narrowed. Cui Tiankai, a Chinese Vice Foreign Minister, warned that the U.S. was at risk of becoming entangled in a regional conflict if it did not work to restrain other states in the region. “I believe that individual countries are actually playing with fire,” he told reporters in late June. “I hope that fire will not be drawn to the United States.” In mid-July, General Chen Bingde, the Chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), publicly complained to his U.S. counterpart, Admiral Mike Mullen, about U.S. military spending, maritime surveillance operations near China’s borders and joint exercises with Vietnam and the Philippines that he called “ill timed.” Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said after a four-day visit to China that he was not convinced that Beijing’s military advancements were entirely defensive in nature, and he fretted that the strife over the South China Sea “could result in some kind of escalation, some kind of miscalculation — an incident, a misunderstanding that would greatly heighten the stakes.”
See “Asia’s New Cold War.”
7月20号,中国与东盟就怎样处置南中国海问题宣布了一项非约束性指引,但分歧还是很大。中国副外长崔天凯警告:如果美国不限制该地区其他国家的行为,而卷入这一地区争端,那一切后果自负。“我相信个别国家正在玩火”他在六月底告诉记者“我希望美国不要引火烧身。”七月中旬,中国人民解放军总参谋长陈炳德公开就美国的军费问题、美国在中国边界附近的海上监视行动和美军参与越南、菲律宾军演等问题向美军中职位相当的迈克穆伦上将提出抱怨,称之为“不合时宜的。”而美国参谋长联席会议主席迈克穆伦上将在对中国为期四天的访问之后说他并不相信中国军力的发展全部是处于国防的目的,而且他担心南中国海的争端“可能会导致某种形式的升级、某种形式的错误估计——一场事故,误解将会极大的增加赌注。”

In such a heated environment, China’s new aircraft carrier will stoke fresh fears. The ship has yet to be given a Chinese name, but some mainland netizens are calling it Shi Lang, after the 17th century Chinese admiral who conquered Taiwan. Even if Beijing eventually chooses to call the vessel something more subtle, the message to the region will be clear — China’s ability to back up its territorial claims is growing.

在这样一种火热的环境中,中国的新航母将会为恐惧添加新的燃料。这艘船曾经被起了一个中国名字,但一些大陆网民称之为“施琅号”,以纪念17世纪中国政府台湾的将领施琅。尽管也许北京最终会给这艘航母起一个更动听的名字,但传递给这一地区的讯息仍然很清晰——中国支持其领土诉求的能力正在增长。

Military analysts caution that the carrier itself is not a game changer. It is, after all, built from a scrapped 26-year-old hull. The ship may take at least five years after setting sail to become fully operational, says Richard Bitzinger, an expert on Asian militaries and a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore; even then, it may be used just for training. Once the ship begins trials, pilots will have to practice taking off and landing from a moving deck, and crews learn to handle the complexity of a vessel for which the Chinese have no experience. But, as Andrew Erickson, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College, puts it, “China has to start somewhere. A newlywed couple wants a starter home, a newly rising great power wants a starter carrier.” Analysts believe that as the PLA navy learns how to operate the former Varyag, China will begin building aircraft carriers from scratch — perhaps as many as four. This is the biggest significance of the vessel now being refurbished in Dalian. “It is indicative of China’s intentions to break out,” says Bitzinger.

军事分析家警告航母本身并不会改变形势。不管怎么说,这艘航母是从一个26年前制造的废弃的船体改建出來的。这艘船可能需要最少5年的航行才能够全功能运作,新加坡S. Rajaratnam学校国际研究所的亚洲军事专家、资深研究员Richard Bitzinger说。就算到了那时候,瓦良格号也可能仅仅用于训练。当航母开始试运行,飞行员必须学习在活动的甲板上起降,而从来没有此类经验的中国船员也必须学习处理航母上的各种复杂情况。但美国海军战争学院的副教授安德鲁·埃里克森说“中国人必须从某个地方开始,新婚夫妇想要一所简单的房子,撅起的大国想要一艘简易的航母。”分析家们相信当解放军海军掌握了怎样操作瓦良格号以后,中国将从零开始建造航母——也许会达四艘之多。这是之所以瓦良格号现在在大连改装的最大意义所在。“这代表了中国想要爆发的意图。”Bitzinger说。

(See pictures China celebrating 90 years of communism.)

For the foreseeable future, the U.S. will remain the dominant military power in Asia. It spends six times what China does on defense and has a long history of operating carriers. The U.S. commissioned its first in 1934 and now has 11 nuclear-powered flattops. Each can carry more than 80 aircraft and simultaneously launch and land several each minute. Combined with submarines, guided-missile cruisers, destroyers and supply ships, the Nimitz-class carrier group is one of the world’s foremost military forces, far more powerful than anything China will be able to organize for decades.

在可以预见的未来,美国将仍然是亚洲地区统治性的军事力量。他的军费支出超过中国6倍,并且有运作航母的长期历史。美国于1934年开始运作第一艘航母,目前拥有11艘核动力航空母舰。每艘可以搭载超过80架飞机,并且在每分钟内可以同时起降多架飞机。与潜艇、导弹巡洋舰、驱逐舰和补给舰编队后,尼米兹级航母战斗群是世界上最强大的军事力量之一,远远超过中国在未来几十年内能够组织的任何军力。

But a straight comparison between the U.S. and China is misleading, says Erickson, “unless one envisions an all-out global conflict between the two, which fortunately remains virtually inconceivable.” Instead, China is focused on blocking any effort by Taiwan to achieve full independence. China’s naval development has been concentrated on what military experts call “antiaccess” or “area denial” capabilities, which would prevent the U.S. from coming to the aid of Taiwan in the event of a conflict. To that end, China has developed an intimidating array of missiles including a new “carrier killer,” a long-range, land-based ballistic missile capable of hitting moving ships that General Chen first publicly acknowledged during Mullen’s China trip in July.

但埃里克森说:直接把美国与中国进行简单的对比是一种误导,“除非某人想象这两国之间爆发了全面战争,但幸运的是这种情况还确实不太可能。”相反,中国则把注意力集中在阻止台湾为了独立所做出的任何努力上。中国海军的发展主要集中在军事专家们称的“反接触”和“区域反击”能力上,这些能力可以防止台海发生冲突的时候美国协助台湾。在这方面,中国已经开发出一系列恐吓性导弹阵列,包括一种号称“航母杀手”的可以打击海绵移动舰艇的新型长程陆基弹道导弹。在迈克穆伦7月访华期间陈炳德已经公开确认了这种导弹的存在。

China has also been able to focus on the projection of military power elsewhere, with cross-strait tensions easing following the election of the mainland-friendly Ma Ying-jeou as Taiwan’s President in 2008. Compared with the PLA navy’s North Sea and East Sea fleets, the South Sea fleet “has received a major jump in attention and funding in the past several years,” says Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, North East Asia project director for the International Crisis Group. “In addition to the upgrade of existing combatant vessels and submarines, we’ve also seen the deployment of additional military personnel, patrol ships and submarines.” The biggest addition will be the aircraft carrier, which Kleine-Ahlbrandt expects will be sent to operate in the South China Sea. “American military officers tend to brush off [the Varyag] and say it’s old, technically outdated, basically just a sitting target,” says Storey. “I think the view in Southeast Asia is quite different. It’s going send a message to Southeast Asian countries that China is serious about upholding its territorial claims in the South China Sea.”

随着2008年亲共的马英九赢得台湾总统选举、台海形势逐渐宽松,中国也聚焦于投射军力到其他地方。比起北海和东海舰队,中国解放军的南海舰队“在过去几年内在被关注程度和资金方面都有很大的飞跃”,国际危机集团的东北亚项目理事Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt说,“对比起对既有战斗舰艇和潜艇的升级,我们还看到(中国)部署了更多的军人、巡逻舰和潜艇。”最大的增兵莫过于瓦良格号航母,Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt认为将会被部署在南中国海。“美国军官倾向于无视(瓦良格号)并说它很老旧,技术上来说,也很落伍了,基本上就是一艘靶舰。”Storey说。“我觉得东南亚国家的看法大不相同。这向东南亚国家表达了一个讯息:中国对支持自己在南中国海的领土诉求态度是很认真的。”

(See “The Chinese Navy: How Big a Threat to the U.S.?”)

The Confidence Gap

信心的空白

China is playing hardball on the diplomatic front too. Beijing cut off military-to-military ties with the U.S. over arms sales to Taiwan, only resuming them in late 2010 to prepare for President Hu Jintao’s state visit to the U.S. Unlike the Cold War, when the U.S. and the Soviet Union agreed to a robust set of rules and hotlines to keep an incident at sea from touching off a nuclear war, Beijing and Washington have no comparable agreement. In a recent report by the Australian-based Lowy Institute for International Policy, authors Rory Medcalf and Raoul Heinrichs list more than a dozen incidents at sea between naval forces or their proxies in the western Pacific. They note that without more communication and active confidence-building measures by all sides, increased naval activity in the area raises the risk of wider hostilities. “While the chance that such incidents will lead to major military clashes should not be overstated, the drivers — in particular China’s frictions with the United States, Japan and India — are likely to persist and intensify,” they write. “As the number and tempo of incidents increases, so does the likelihood that an episode will escalate to armed confrontation, diplomatic crisis or possibly even conflict.”

中国在外交战线上也态度强硬。在美国对台军售后,中国终止了与美国的两国军方外交,仅仅是在2010年底为了胡锦涛访美而返回这一外交关系。不像冷战时代的美苏之间,为了避免因为一个海上的事故而引爆核大战,两国有一系列可靠的规则和热线电话保持联系,北京和华盛顿没有类似的协议。在澳大利亚劳伊国际政策研究所近期的一份报告中,作者Rory Medcalf 和 Raoul Heinrichs 列出了超过12个西太平洋海域的海军之间或其代理人舰只之间的事故。他们指出各方如果没有更多的沟通和积极的建立信心的考量,在这一区域增长的海军行动将会导致敌意增加的风险。“这些事故引发大规模军事冲突的机率不会被高估,其动因:中国与美国、日本和印度的摩擦——看起来更持久更强烈。”他们写道“随着事故发生的数量和速度的增长,事件有可能发展为武装对抗、外交危机甚至冲突。”

For now, however, there isn’t any particular mood of belligerence in Dalian, where the former Varyag sits dockside within view of an Ikea store and the site of a new Sam’s Club. There’s just a feeling that it’s high time the world’s most populous nation took its rightful place on the high seas. Residents recall when the carrier was towed in nearly a decade ago, a rusted shell with little obvious potential as a warship. Today they scoff at the thought that other countries should be worried. “That thing was a piece of trash that even Ukraine didn’t want,” says a worker at a nearby construction site. “For a nation of 1.3 billion people, it’s definitely not enough. We need much more.” It’s that notion, and not the aircraft carrier itself, that makes the rest of the world nervous.

尽管如此,眼下在大连这个瓦良格号的母港还看不到任何求战的心情。瓦良格号停泊的码头旁边,可以见到有一家宜家店和一家山姆会员店。只是感觉到现在是中国这个世界上人口最多的国家在公海上获得自己的地位的时候了。当地的居民回忆起大约10年前当这艘航母刚刚被拖到这里,那仅仅是一个锈迹斑斑的船壳,基本看不出这是一艘战舰。今天他们嘲笑这种“其他国家应该担忧”的想法。“那玩艺儿就是一个连乌克兰都不想要的垃圾”附近一个建筑工地的工人说,“对一个有13亿人口的国家,这绝对不够。我们需要更多。”正是这种想法,而不是这艘航母本身,让全世界不安。

See “U.S. Missiles Deployed Near China Send a Message.”

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