中国在2012年面临12大难题

China’s 2012 Challenges
中国在2012年面临12大难题

China enters the New Year confronting challenges and opportunities that will be shaped in turn by how its government and populace respond to them. Here outlined are twelve key items and issues that will help define 2012 for China, both at home and abroad. 2012 will be a “two-level” year in which internal and external factors are linked ever-more-clearly. As a new generation of leadership prepares to govern China, millions of citizens and netizens and their foreign counterparts will be watching Beijing’s actions more closely than ever before.
中国进入了一个机遇与挑战并存的新年,而中国的政府和人民如何应对这些机遇和挑战也将同时改变着中国的现状。本文列出了2012年将会影响中国的12大关键问题,有国内的也有国际的。2012年是一个内部因素和外部因素互相交织与以往更明显的一个“两级年”。随着新一代国家领导人即将开始掌权中国,数百万市民和网民和国外的人们将会比以往更加密切的关注北京的动作。
1) The run-up to Beijing’s once-in-a-decade political transition in October 2012 is likely to generate intensified clampdowns internally and assertive rhetoric abroad as China faces rising domestic challenges, and finds itself constrained internationally. Fearful neighbors may further strengthen ties with the United States. Pariah/failed state “allies” North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran will likely experience problems that affect China’s own interests. Externally, China is likely to be more intransigent than before. Internally, Beijing will resist making difficult decisions about economic reforms, particularly reforms that might harm key state-owned enterprises and monopolistic/oligopolistic concerns connected with families of political elites. Domestically and internationally, Chinese leaders will attempt to postpone difficult policy decisions until after the transition.
1、随着中国国内外压力的不断升温,在2012年十月中国十年一度的最高领导权易手之前,中国政府将会在国内加紧镇压、在国际上更加武断。心怀恐惧的中国邻国们将会加紧与美国的联系。那些被国际社会唾弃的“老朋友”们:北韩、巴基斯坦、伊朗,也将会面临一些影响到中国自身利益的问题。在外部,中国将会变得更加不透明。在内部,北京将会拒绝进一步进行艰难的经济改革,尤其是进行会损害到重点国有企业和一些政治巨头把持的寡头企业利益的改革。在国内和国际上,中国的领导人都会搁置重要的政策决定,直到完成权力转移。

2) Slowing economic growth will likely increasingly expose the flaws and unsustainable nature of China’s infrastructure-driven growth model.One local banking regulator cited by Minxin Pei claims only 1/3 of the investment projects currently under construction will produce cash flows large enough to cover their debt service burden. This may rapidly reduce economic growth and commodity demand in 2012.
2、经济增长的变缓将逐渐暴露出中国以基础设施建设驱动型的经济增长模式的问题和不可持续性。Minxin Pei援引一名中国银行业管理者的话说,目前中国在建的投资项目,只有三分之一有望通过项目的现金流偿还债务。这种情况将极大的降低中国2012年的经济增长速度和商品需求。

3) China’s local government debt situation will generate global concern.The U.S. and Europe are the current poster children for financial problems, but China’s ballooning (and significantly under-reported) local government debts will likely become a front-page story. Local government debts, already reportedly nearing US$1.7 trillion, are probably larger. Local government finance companies still have at least 2.3 trillion RMB (US$364 billion) in untapped credit lines. While policy makers still have sufficient maneuvering room to try to coast through October 2012, the problem remains of building infrastructure that likely won’t generate the cash flows needed to service the debts that financed those projects. Expect non-performing loans to once again become an albatross for Chinese banks.
3、中国地方政府的债务形势将会引起全球担忧。美国与欧洲是目前全球财政问题的代表,但中国地方政府不断膨胀的债务规模(而且大部分没有被报道出来)可能将会成为头条新闻。目前中国地方政府的债务规模据说已经达到1.7万亿美元,实际可能更多。目前地方政府的财务公司仍然拥有2.3万亿元(3640亿美元)的未使用信用额度,因此政策制定者在2012年10月之前仍然拥有极大的灵活操作的空间。由于这些资金投资于不能产生现金流的基础设施建设上,如何偿还这些债务仍然是个问题。烂帐预期再次成为2012年中国银行业一个无法摆脱的噩梦。

4) Falling real estate prices will likely hamper GDP growth.Agricultural Bank of China recently estimated that real estate prices in First Tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai would need to fall by as much as 25%, and those in Second Tier cities like Changsha would need to decline by as much as 15%, to return to reasonable levels in 2012. Given the outsized role that real estate investment has played in China’s economic growth in recent years, such price declines bode poorly for GDP growth prospects. Bank of China recently trimmed its 2012 GDP forecast from 9.3% to 8.8% growth. Other banks have followed suit. We believe that in 2012, China’s economy will require active policy measures just to meet the 7% growth target laid out in the 12thFive Year Plan.
4、房地产价格的下跌将会影响到GDP的增长。中国农业银行最近估计,2012年,在一类城市如北京、上海等,房价需要下降最多达25%,在二类城市如长沙,需要下降最多15%以回归合理价位。近年来中国的经济增长过于依靠房地产投资,这种价格的下降将会降低对GDP增长的预期。中国银行近日把对中国2012 GDP的增长预期中9.3%修正为8.8%,其他的银行也跟随了这一举动。我们相信在2012年,中国经济想要达到”12五“规划中的7%的增长率的话,更需要积极的政策考量。

 

5) China’s debt problems, slowing growth, and continued demand weakness in major Chinese export markets like the U.S., EU, and Japan are likely to have major repercussions for countries benefitting from China’s commodity demand boom.Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Chile, and Russia will be in especially vulnerable positions if a Chinese slowdown triggers significant price declines for raw materials like iron ore, coking coal, copper, and crude oil.
5、中国的债务问题、经济增长变缓、和主要出口市场如欧洲、美国和日本持续的需求下降将对依赖中国的旺盛商品需求盈利的国家造成重大影响。澳大利亚、巴西、印尼、智利和俄罗斯将在中国经济增长放缓从而导致的大宗商品如铁矿石、焦煤、铜、原油的价格下跌中处于尤其不利的位置。
6) China’s government will likely tighten domestic media reporting guidelines, as it remains highly concerned about social unrest and seeks to suppress news that might create controversy ahead of October 2012. Investors will have to take particular care that important data points are not swept under the table.
6、中国政府可能加紧对国内媒体报导的钳制、在2012年十月之前高度关注社会骚乱和打压可能引起争议的新闻报导。
7) To forestall social instability, Beijing may intensify policies to drive growth in Central and Western China. Despite the availability of older migrant workers returning to rural areas, Beijing’s infrastructure-based approach to growth promotion is decelerating. Excavator sales, one indicator of construction activity, fell by 33.2% year-on-year (YoY) in Western China and by 29.5% YoY in Central China in November 2011. Policies aimed at reviving construction activity to sustain growth in these regions will almost certainly exacerbate already substantial local debt challenges.
7、为了在社会不稳定中抢占先机,北京可能通过政策推动中国中部和西部的发展。尽管农村地区的年长的农民工的数量在增长,北京政府一直推动的以基础设施建设为导向的经济发展模式正在减速。2011年11月,作为中国建设工程指示性数据的挖掘机销量,在中国西部同比下降33.2%,在中国中部同比下降29.5%。试图在这些地区复苏建设工程以维持经济增长的政策,将给本来就已经非常沉重的地方债务带来更严峻的挑战。

8) There is a heightened risk that inflation will exceed expected levels. If growth falters as real estate prices continue to fall and the economies of major trading partners remain weak, Beijing may be forced to loosen lending restrictions. Such monetary supply expansion would very likely push inflation well beyond the 2.8% figure that Li Daokui of People’s Bank of China forecasts for 2012.
8、通货膨胀将会超出预期。如果房地产价格持续下跌、贸易伙伴依旧虚弱到导致经济增长变缓,北京可能不得不放松信贷管制。而这种货币供应量的增加将使中国的通货膨胀严重超出中国人民银行李稻葵提出的2.8%的2012通涨指标。
9) 2012 is likely to feature increased outbound investment as Chinese businesses and affluent private investors from China seek safe havens from a possible domestic economic slowdown and domestic inflation. The U.S., UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are among the countries best placed to benefit from private investments in real estate and other assets by wealthy Chinese. Chinese companies will continue to search globally for assets, with natural resources firms especially focused on Australia, Africa, and Latin America.
9、出于对中国经济增长变缓和国内通胀的预期,2012年中国公司和富有的私人投资者将会着眼于国外投资项目。美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲和新西兰将成为中国富人们通过投资房地产和其他资产获利的最佳场所。中国公司将继续在全球范围内寻求盈利机会,自然资源型公司将尤其关注澳洲、非洲和拉美地区。

10) We expect continued friction and possible skirmishes in the South China Sea, especially between Chinese and Vietnamese maritime forces.The Chinese government’s assertive approach regarding maritime issues in the South and East China Seas will likely generate additional friction with Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines. South Korea plans to begin using military special forces personnel armed with firearms on fishing enforcement missions. Serious confrontations involving Chinese fishermen are highly likely.
10、我们预测南中国海将会发生持续的摩擦和小规模冲突,尤其是中国和越南海军之间。中国政府在东海和南海问题上的武断态度将会导致与韩国、日本、越南和菲律宾之间的摩擦加剧。韩国已经决定在海洋渔业执法中使用武装特种部队。涉及中国渔民的严重冲突发生的可能性极大。

11) China is expected to begin drilling its first ultra-deepwater oil/gas well with a domestically-made drillship. Vietnam and the Philippines will likely be unsettled, despite the fact that the initial deepwater well will most likely be drilled in the northern South China Sea within the undisputed portion of China’s claimed EEZ.
11、中国将要开始使用国产的采油船开始钻探第一口超级深水油井。尽管中国将在无争议的南海北部中国专属经济区内钻探,但这一举动仍然可能引起越南和菲律宾的不安。

12) Beijing will augment its ongoing Gulf of Aden/Indian Ocean anti-piracy mission, perhaps with limited access and forward positioning in such locations as the Seychelles. This is part of a larger pattern in which Beijing continues to focus its most high-intensity military capabilities on the Near Seas (Yellow, East, and South China Seas) and their immediate approaches, while developing lower-intensity capabilities, more gradually, further afield.
12、中国将会增强在亚丁湾和印度洋反海盗任务的力度,这可能是因为中国试图获得通往塞舌尔之类地区更通畅的航道而采取的行动。这是中国在发展低强度海军军事能力的同时,逐步地发展高强度近海(黄海、东海、南中国海等)作战能力的一部分。
Andrew Erickson is an associate professor in the Strategic Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College. Gabe Collins is the co-founder of China SignPost and a former commodity investment analyst and research fellow in the US Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute.
安德鲁·埃里克森是美国海军战争学院战略研究部门的助理教授。盖比·柯林斯是前美国海军战争学院中国海洋研究所的研究员、商品投资分析师和【中国向导】的联合创始人。

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